Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy


CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.


Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.


But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.


"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.


Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.


Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)


Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.


Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.


"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."


The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."


In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:


—Previous violent or aggressive behavior


—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse


—Guns in the home


—Use of drugs or alcohol


—Brain damage from a head injury


Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.


Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.


Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.


According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.


Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.


Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.


And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.


All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.


Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.


Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.


Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.


___


Online:


American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org


___


AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner


Read More..

Norquist: Obama, Democrats Using Newtown for 'Political Purposes'


Dec 23, 2012 11:23am







abc grover norquist this week jt 121223 wblog Grover Norquist: Obama and Democrats Using Newtown for Political Purposes

(ABC News)


National Rifle Association board member and president of Americans for Tax Reform Grover Norquist said on Sunday that President Obama and Democrats are politicizing the Newtown tragedy by pushing for gun control.


“We ought to calm down and not take tragedies like this, crimes like this, and use them for political purposes,” Norquist told me on “This Week.” “President Obama has been president for four years. If he thought some gun control could solve this problem, he should have been pushing it years ago.”


“Democrats had a majority in the House and a supermajority in the House and the Senate for the first two years that they were in office. If they thought that this was really an important issue they might have done something then. They didn’t,” he added.


Read a full transcript of this week’s show HERE. 


On Wednesday, Obama announced that Vice President Joe Biden would head a task force of leaders from across the country to evaluate solutions to reduce gun violence.


Norquist endorsed the recommendation made by NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre at a press conference on Friday to place armed guards in schools across the country.


Other members of the political roundtable pushed for what they called “common sense” gun laws.


Like “This Week” on Facebook here. You can also follow the show on Twitter here.


Newark, N.J. Mayor Cory Booker, who is a member of the pro-gun control group Mayors Against Illegal Guns, said that there is more agreement than disagreement on measures to stop the mentally ill and criminals from acquiring weapons.


“I don’t think anyone has seen someone shot—I have,” Booker said. “I don’t know if anybody here has had to put their hand in somebody’s chest, and try to stop the bleeding so that person doesn’t die—I have. What frustrates me about this debate is that it is a false debate.”


“Most of us in America including gun owners agree on things that would stop the kind of carnage that is going on in cities all across America,” Booker said, adding that loopholes that allow criminals to buy guns in “secondary markets” should be closed.


Get more pure politics at ABC News.com/Politics and a lighter take on the news at OTUSNews.com.


Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan said that LaPierre’s suggestion that the effect of a violent culture on the mentally ill has contributed to increased gun violence, but she believes that Congress should pursue some gun control measures.


“I am for the banning of the extended magazines and extended clips,” Noonan said.


Editor and Publisher of The Nation Katrina vanden Heuvel said that focusing on the mentally ill is a distraction from the issue of gun violence.


“The mental illness argument has been used to evade action,” vanden Huevel said. “More guns and bullets, more dead children.”



SHOWS: This Week







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Egyptians vote on Islamist-inspired constitution


CAIRO (Reuters) - Early indications suggested Egyptians approved an Islamist-drafted constitution in Saturday's second-round referendum despite opposition criticism of the measure as divisive.


As counting began, an official from the Muslim Brotherhood's political party, which backs President Mohamed Mursi, said a sample of a few hundred thousand votes had "yes" in the lead.


An official from the opposition National Salvation Front said their early exit polls showed the constitution passing.


Last week's first round returned 57 percent in favor of the constitution, according to unofficial data. The vote was split over two days as many judges refused to supervise the ballot.


The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals.


Islamist backers of Mursi say the constitution is vital to move to democracy, nearly two years after an Arab Spring revolt overthrew authoritarian ruler Hosni Mubarak. It will provide stability for a weak economy, they say.


But the opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women.


"I'm voting 'no' because Egypt can't be ruled by one faction," said Karim Nahas, 35, a stockbroker, heading to a polling station in Giza, in greater Cairo.


At another polling station, some voters said they were more interested in ending Egypt's long period of political instability than in the Islamist aspects of the charter.


"We have to extend our hands to Mursi to help fix the country," said Hisham Kamal, an accountant.


VICE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCES RESIGNATION


Hours before polls closed, Vice President Mahmoud Mekky announced his resignation. He said he wanted to quit last month but stayed on to help Mursi tackle a crisis that blew up when the Islamist leader assumed wide powers.


Mekky, a prominent judge who said he was uncomfortable in politics, disclosed earlier he had not been informed of Mursi's power grab. The timing of his resignation appeared linked to the lack of a vice-presidential post under the draft constitution.


Rights groups reported alleged law violations during voting. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some of them, and complained of voter registration irregularities, including listing of a dead person.


The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says sharia law principles remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this further. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and other non-Muslims.


If the constitution passes, there will be parliamentary elections in about two months.


After the first round of voting, the opposition said alleged abuses meant the first stage of the referendum should be re-run.


But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.


MORE UNREST


If the charter is approved, the opposition says it is a recipe for trouble since it will not have received sufficiently broad backing and that it will not have been a fair vote.


"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition formed after Mursi expanded his powers on November 22 and then pushed the constitution to a vote.


Protesters accused the president of acting like a pharaoh, and he was forced to issue a second decree two weeks ago that amended a provision putting his decisions above legal challenge.


Said cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."


At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals hurled stones at each other on Friday in Alexandria, the second-biggest city. Two buses were torched.


Late on Saturday, Mursi announced the names of 90 new members he had appointed to the upper house of parliament, state media reported, and a presidential official said the list was mainly liberals and other non-Islamists.


Mursi's main opponents from liberal, socialist and other parties said they had refused to take any seats.


Two-thirds of the 270-member upper house were elected in a vote early this year, with one third appointed by the president. Mursi, elected in June, had not named them till now. Mursi's Islamist party and its allies dominate the assembly. (Additional reporting by Tamim Elyan and Shaimaa Fayed; Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Jason Webb)



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CIA chief decries torture in Osama bin Laden hunt movie






WASHINGTON: Acting CIA director Michael Morell said that "Zero Dark Thirty," the Hollywood take on the hunt for Osama bin Laden, exaggerates the importance of information obtained by harsh interrogations.

The movie by Academy Award-winning director Kathryn Bigelow tells the story of the decade-long search after September 11, 2001 that climaxed in last year's dramatic and deadly raid in May on the Al-Qaeda terror leader's hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

The film shows US personnel using harsh interrogation techniques like water-boarding -- a method widely seen as torture -- to force captives to speak. The information obtained was crucial, according to the movie, in piecing together the trail that eventually led to bin Laden.

Not so, Morell said in a message to Central Intelligence Agency employees released to AFP on Saturday.

The movie "creates the strong impression that the enhanced interrogation techniques that were part of our former detention and interrogation program were the key to finding bin Laden. That impression is false."

Morell's message, sent to the employees on Friday, states that "multiple streams of intelligence" led CIA analysts to conclude that bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad.

He acknowledged that "some" of the information "came from detainees subjected to enhanced techniques. But there were many other sources as well."

The controversial techniques were banned in 2009 by President Barack Obama.

Morell said that "whether enhanced interrogation techniques were the only timely and effective way to obtain information from those detainees, as the film suggests, is a matter of debate that cannot and never will be definitively resolved."

Morell is widely believed to be a top candidate for the job of CIA director after the resignation of David Petreaus, America's most celebrated military leader in a generation. Petreaus stepped down in November after admitting to an extra-marital affair with his biographer.

Morell's message, first reported by The New York Times, echoes a statement decrying the "Zero Dark Thirty" interrogation scenes signed by three senators, including Republican John McCain, himself a prisoner of war and torture victim during the Vietnam War.

In a letter to the head of Sony Pictures, McCain -- the 2008 Republican presidential candidate -- and Democratic senators Diane Feinstein and Carl Levin wrote that the movie "clearly implies that the CIA's coercive interrogation techniques were effective" in obtaining information that would lead to bin Laden.

"We have reviewed CIA records and know that this is incorrect," the senators wrote. "We believe that you have an obligation to state that the role of torture in the hunt for (Bin Laden) is not based on the facts, but rather part of the film's fictional narrative."

However two CIA officials active when suspects were tortured disputed those assertions.

Jose Rodriguez, who oversaw the CIA's counterterrorism operations when "harsh interrogation" methods were in use, wrote in the Washington Post in April that the path leading to bin Laden "started in a CIA black site ... and stemmed from information obtained from hardened terrorists who agreed to tell us some (but not all) of what they knew after undergoing harsh but legal interrogation methods."

And former CIA director Michael Hayden wrote in a Wall Street Journal in June 2011 that a "crucial component" of information that eventually led to bin Laden came from three CIA prisoners, "all of whom had been subjected to some form of enhanced interrogation."

Hayden claimed that he learned the information when, in 2007, he was first briefed about pursuing bin Laden through his courier network.

But interim CIA director Morell emphasized the film, a likely Oscar contender, "takes significant artistic licence, while portraying itself as being historically accurate."

"What I want you to know is that Zero Dark Thirty is a dramatization, not a realistic portrayal of the facts.

"CIA interacted with the filmmakers through our Office of Public Affairs but, as is true with any entertainment project with which we interact, we do not control the final product."

- AFP/jc



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Virbhadra Singh to be Himachal CM

SHIMLA: Congress Party's old warhorse Virbhadra Singh will be the next chief minister of Himachal Pradesh. This will be his sixth term as the head of the hill state. After a meeting of Himachal Pradesh Congress Legislature Party (CLP) here on Saturday, Virbhadra's name was cleared by party president Sonia Gandhi.

At the CLP meet, the MLAs had sent a one-line resolution asking Sonia Gandhi to decide on who would be the chief minister. Congress general secretary Janardhan Dwivedi said here that the Congress leadership on Saturday evening decided on Virbhadra to head the government in the state.

Earlier, hundreds of Congress supporters had gathered at Himachal Pradesh Vidhan Sabha complex to witness the election of CLP leader despite tight security.

Party observer Sheila Dikshit arrived late and the CLP meeting began after 6.40pm, when she reached there along with Birender Singh and Janardhan Dwivedi. Out of the 34 MLAs present, 22 backed Virbhadra, while one of the contenders for the CM's post, Kaul Singh Thakur, claimed the support of 18 MLAs.

While most of the MLAs had reached the venue much in advance, Virbhadra Singh arrived at 6:08pm with his supporters raising slogans like "Raja nahin faqir hai ... Himachal ki taqdir hai". Senior Congress leaders Vidya Stokes and Asha Kumari were present at the meeting. On Friday, Virbhadra had met Stokes at her residence.

The Congress had defeated the BJP in the assembly polls, winning 36 out of 68 seats on Thursday. BJP got 26 while six seats went to independents.

Read More..

Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy


CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.


Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.


But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.


"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.


Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.


Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)


Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.


Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.


"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."


The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."


In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:


—Previous violent or aggressive behavior


—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse


—Guns in the home


—Use of drugs or alcohol


—Brain damage from a head injury


Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.


Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.


Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.


According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.


Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.


Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.


And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.


All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.


Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.


Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.


Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.


___


Online:


American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org


___


AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner


Read More..

'Fiscal Cliff' Leaves Boehner a Wounded Speaker













John Boehner is a bloodied House speaker following the startling setback that his own fractious Republican troops dealt him in their "fiscal cliff" struggle against President Barack Obama.



There's plenty of internal grumbling about the Ohio Republican, especially among conservatives, and lots of buzzing about whether his leadership post is in jeopardy. But it's uncertain whether any other House Republican has the broad appeal to seize the job from Boehner or whether his embarrassing inability to pass his own bill preventing tax increases on everyone but millionaires is enough to topple him.



"No one will be challenging John Boehner as speaker," predicted John Feehery, a consultant and former aide to House GOP leaders. "No one else can right now do the job of bringing everyone together" and unifying House Republicans.



The morning after he yanked the tax-cutting bill from the House floor to prevent certain defeat, Boehner told reporters he wasn't worried about losing his job when the new Congress convenes Jan. 3.



"They weren't taking that out on me," he said Friday of rank-and-file GOP lawmakers, who despite pleading from Boehner and his lieutenants were shy of providing the 217 votes needed for passage. "They were dealing with the perception that somebody might accuse them of raising taxes."






Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo











Cliffhanger: Congress Heads Home after 'Plan B' Vote Pulled from House Floor Watch Video









President Obama on Fiscal Cliff: 'Nobody Gets 100 Percent of What They Want' Watch Video









Next Steps for Fiscal Cliff? 'God Only Knows,' Says Boehner Watch Video






That "somebody" was a number of outside conservative groups such as the Club for Growth and Heritage Action for America, which openly pressured lawmakers to reject Boehner's bill. Such organizations often oppose GOP lawmakers they consider too moderate and have been headaches for Boehner in the past.



This time, his retreat on the tax measure was an unmistakable blow to the clout of the 22-year House veteran known for an amiable style, a willingness to make deals and a perpetual tan.



Congressional leaders amass power partly by their ability to command votes, especially in showdowns. His failure to do so Thursday stands to weaken his muscle with Obama and among House Republicans.



"It's very hard for him to negotiate now," said Sarah Binder, a George Washington University political scientist, adding that it's premature to judge if Boehner's hold on the speakership is in peril. "No one can trust him because it's very hard for him to produce votes."



She said the loss weakens his ability to summon support in the future because "you know the last time he came to you like this, others didn't step in line."



Boehner, 63, faces unvarnished hostility from some conservatives.



"We clearly can't have a speaker operate well outside" what Republicans want to do, said freshman Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan.



Huelskamp is one of four GOP lawmakers who lost prized committee assignments following previous clashes with party leaders. That punishment was an anomaly for Boehner, who is known more for friendly persuasion than arm-twisting.



He said Boehner's job would depend on whether the speaker is "willing to sit and listen to Republicans first, or march off" and negotiate with Obama.



Conservative Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, said one of the tea party's lasting impacts would be if Boehner struggled to retain his speakership due to the fight over the fiscal cliff, which is the combination of deep tax increases and spending cuts that start in early January without a bipartisan deal to avert them.



"If there's a major defeat delivered here, it could make it tough on him," King said. "He's in a tough spot."





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Italy PM Monti resigns, elections likely in February


ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti tendered his resignation to the president on Friday after 13 months in office, opening the way to a highly uncertain national election in February.


The former European commissioner, appointed to lead an unelected government to save Italy from financial crisis a year ago, has kept his own political plans a closely guarded secret but he has faced growing pressure to seek a second term.


President Giorgio Napolitano is expected to dissolve parliament in the next few days and has already indicated that the most likely date for the election is February 24.


In an unexpected move, Napolitano said he would hold consultations with political leaders from all the main parties on Saturday to discuss the next steps. In the meantime Monti will continue in a caretaker capacity.


European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso have called for Monti's economic reform agenda to continue but Italy's two main parties have said he should stay out of the race.


Monti, who handed in his resignation during a brief meeting at the presidential palace shortly after parliament approved his government's 2013 budget, will hold a news conference on Sunday at which he is expected clarify his intentions.


Ordinary Italians are weary of repeated tax hikes and spending cuts and opinion polls offer little evidence that they are ready to give Monti a second term. A survey this week showed 61 percent saying he should not stand.


Whether he runs or not, his legacy will loom over an election which will be fought out over the painful measures he has introduced to try to rein in Italy's huge public debt and revive its stagnant economy.


His resignation came a couple of months before the end of his term, after his technocrat government lost the support of Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right People of Freedom (PDL) party in parliament earlier this month.


Speculation is swirling over Monti's next moves. These could include outlining policy recommendations, endorsing a centrist alliance committed to his reform agenda or even standing as a candidate in the election himself.


The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) has held a strong lead in the polls for months but a centrist alliance led by Monti could gain enough support in the Senate to force the PD to seek a coalition deal which could help shape the economic agenda.


BERLUSCONI IN WINGS


Senior figures from the alliance, including both the UDC party, which is close to the Roman Catholic Church, and a new group founded by Ferrari sports car chairman Luca di Montezemolo, have been hoping to gain Monti's backing.


He has not said clearly whether he intends to run, but he has dropped heavy hints he will continue to push a reform agenda that has the backing of both Italy's business community and its European partners.


The PD has promised to stick to the deficit reduction targets Monti has agreed with the European Union and says it will maintain the broad course he has set while putting more emphasis on reviving growth.


Berlusconi's return to the political arena has added to the already considerable uncertainty about the centre-right's intentions and increased the likelihood of a messy and potentially bitter election campaign.


The billionaire media tycoon has fluctuated between attacking the government's "Germano-centric" austerity policies and promising to stand aside if Monti agrees to lead the centre right, but now appears to have settled on an anti-Monti line.


He has pledged to cut taxes and scrap a hated housing tax which Monti imposed. He has also sounded a stridently anti-German line which has at times echoed the tone of the populist 5-Star Movement headed by maverick comic Beppe Grillo.


The PD and the PDL, both of which supported Monti's technocrat government in parliament, have made it clear they would not be happy if he ran against them and there have been foretastes of the kind of attacks he can expect.


Former centre-left prime minister Massimo D'Alema said in an interview last week that it would be "morally questionable" for Monti to run against the PD, which backed all of his reforms and which has pledged to maintain his pledges to European partners.


Berlusconi who has mounted an intensive media campaign in the past few days, echoed that criticism this week, saying Monti risked losing the credibility he has won over the past year and becoming a "little political figure".


(Additional reporting by Gavin Jones, Massimiliano Di Giorgio and Paolo Biondi; Writing by Gavin Jones and James Mackenzie; Editing by Michael Roddy)



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Football: Late-show Juventus go 10 points clear






ROME: Juventus needed two goals in stoppage time to seal a come-from-behind 3-1 win at Cagliari on Friday and move 10 points clear at the top of Serie A.

Cagliari, just a point above the relegation zone, went ahead after 16 minutes through a Mauricio Pinilla penalty awarded after Arturo Vidal had chopped down Marco Sau in the box.

In a contentious game, Cagliari played the last 30 minutes a man short after the sending off of Davide Astori, who had already been booked, for a foul on Sebastian Giovinco.

Alessandro Matri, playing against his old club, levelled for Juventus 10 minutes later and added another in the second minute of injury time.

Mirko Vucinic put away the third in the fifth minute of time added on.

"I have waited for this moment for a long time. My morale had gone down because I wasn't scoring but I always believed in myself," said Matri, who hadn't found the back of the net since September 29.

Inter Milan can close the gap on Juve back to seven points if they beat Genoa on Saturday.

- AFP/jc



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Supreme Court orders to jail convicts on bail ignored for 4 years

NEW DELHI: Here is why people are increasingly getting frustrated by the absence of deterrent effect of law on criminals — the authorities ignored for four years a Supreme Court order directing immediate arrest of convicts, who were on bail, in a murder case to serve out the 10-year imprisonment sentence.

In a startling case, the Supreme Court in May 2008 dismissed the appeal of one Sambu Rai, who was accused in a murder case, and restored the trial court's August 4, 1989 order convicting him and seven other accused under Section 304 (culpable homicide not amounting to murder) to 10 years imprisonment.

Since September 11, 1989, that is for nearly 23 years, all the accused have been on bail since the Patna high court entertained their appeal. The HC decided the appeal on November 10, 2000. The Supreme Court took another eight years to dismiss their appeals and restore the trial court order.

Though the Supreme Court set aside the HC's lenient order and restored the stringent punishment recorded by the trial court 19 years ago, it had little effect on the convicts. A week after the June 17, 2008 judgment of the apex court, the registry sent out a letter to authorities concerned in Bihar directing that "this order be punctually observed and carried into execution by all concerned".

The Supreme Court's warning went unheeded, which allowed the convicts to roam free for four more years when they should have been serving out their 10-year sentence. The SC order was finally complied with on May 9, 2012, when the Motihari trial court issued arrest warrants against the eight convicts.

Three convicts — Sambu Rai, Jhulan Rai and Dila Rai — were arrested the same day the warrants were issued by the additional district judge. Another convict Bali Rai was arrested on May 24. Three others — Manak Rai, Ram Ikbal Rai and Gorakh Rai — had died by the time arrest warrants were issued and the last convict Parshuram Rai was physically handicapped and bed ridden.

This is not an isolated incident of criminals roaming free despite conviction. Another common feature of our criminal justice system is convicts remaining on bail during pendency of appeals, which remain pending for a long time as the appellate court's order summoning trial court records do not get complied with for years.

From Motihari alone, there are seven such instances where appeals have not been taken up for hearing for years, in one case for more than 20 years, as the trial court records have not reached the appellate court.

In the appeal filed by Muktar Mian against state of Bihar, the appellate court admitted his plea and requisitioned the trial court records to commence hearing on the appeal. After more than 20 years on November 21 this year, the appellate court said, "Appellant takes no step. Lower court records not received. Put up on February 21, 2013. Appellant and officer concerned to comply with the previous order."

Of the six other cases, one appeal is pending since August 1995, two each from 2004 and 2006 and another from 2010. In all these cases, the accused in all probability continue to enjoy freedom on bail and may continue to do so in the face of judicial lethargy.

In the Baithani Tola massacre, too, a similar trend is visible. The Supreme Court in July this year admitted the Bihar government's appeal challenging the Patna High Court order acquitting all the accused convicted of massacre of dalits in 1996. But the SC's order seeking trial court records is yet to be complied with.

An Ara trial court in 2010 had convicted 23 and sentenced three to death while awarding life sentence to the other 20 for the massacre of 21 landless poor, most of whom were women and children. But on April 16 this year, the HC overturned their conviction and acquitted the accused.

On July 16 this year, the SC did not accept Bihar government's plea for issuance of bailable warrants against the accused for taking them into custody during pendency of the appeal.

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